Economic Indicators Sector

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2008 .
Corporate Profits, Fourth quarter 2008. 

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008,(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month.  in the preliminary estimates, the decrease in real GDP was 6.2 percent .the decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from federal government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

 Most of the major components contributed to the much larger decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter than in the third. the largest contributors were a downturn in exports and a much larger decrease in equipment and software.  the most notable offset was a much larger decrease in imports.

The final estimate of the fourth-quarter change in real GDP is 0.1 percentage point, or $2.9 billion, lower than the preliminary estimate issued last month. the downward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment, to exports of services, and to nonresidential structures that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports of services and an upward revision to exports of goods.

U.S. economist sees no proof of U.S. economic recovery in two years

There is no real proof that the U.S. economy will recover in two years, prominent U.S. economist Martin Feldstein said here on Monday. "It's very hard to predict when the U.S. economy will come out of the current downturn," Feldstein, a Harvard professor, told Xinhua on the sidelines of the China Development Forum 2009.

 Feldstein, who was the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, is one of the members of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, a team named by U.S. President Barack Obama last month to help lift the economy out of the ongoing recession. Feldstein said the stimulus package adopted by the U.S. government was not enough to avert the sliding trend of the U.S. economy. As to the European economies, Feldstein said they were probably weaker than the U.S. economy.

"But the European governments are not actively dealing with the downturn. Specially, Italy and France are resisting large fiscal stimulus. So I'm worried that they too will have a hard time coming out of this downturn," he said. As to China's economy, Feldstein said: "My impression is that China has a quite substantial stimulus package that is going to be successful in bringing China's economic activity back up to substantial growth rate by some time next year."

"I don't know whether China will reach this goal of 8 percent for 2009. But I think, by 2010 China will be growing at numbers like 8 percent," he added.

Japan’s economic crisis - Japan′s exports suffer record plunge.

Japan's exports fell by nearly half in February from a year earlier, a record monthly drop, the government said Wednesday, as the relentless slump in overseas demand deepened its grip on the world's second-largest economy.

Exports tumbled 49.4 percent from the previous year, the sharpest decline since the Ministry of Finance began compiling comparable data in 1980. Demand plunged in all regions of the world, particularly North America, Europe and Russia.

Japan, which had relied foreign sales of its cars and gadgets to drive economic growth, now finds itself mired in its deepest recession since the end of World War II as consumers and companies around the world slash spending. The International Monetary Fund expects the Japanese economy to contract 5.8 percent for the 2009 calendar year, though many economists predict it could be far worse. the slowdown in the domestic economy has also sapped imports, which fell 43 percent in February from a year earlier.As a result, Japan posted its first trade surplus in five months, breaking a run of four straight months in the red. In January, the country posted a record trade deficit of 952.6 billion yen ($9.7 billion).

Global exports of motor vehicles plummeted 64 percent in February, with those to the US down 71 percent. Overall exports to the US fell 58 percent.Japan's automakers have been among the hardest hit by the global downturn, and the latest ouput figures released Tuesday reflect impact of the ongoing slump.

WTO foresees 9-percent global trade decline in 2009

Global trade will decline by some 9 percent in volume terms this year, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a report on Monday.

The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10 percent this year, according to the annual global trade assessment report.

In developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2-3 percent in 2009, WTO economists said in the report.

According to the report, signs of the sharp deterioration in trade were evident in the latter part of 2008 as demand sagged and production slowed.

Although world trade grew by 2 percent in volume terms for the whole of 2008, it tapered off in the last six months and was well down on the 6-percent volume increase posted in 2007. "Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums," WTO Director-general Pascal Lamy said in a statement.

"In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective," Lamy said, referring to the upcoming Group of 20 summit scheduled for early April.